Q2-2021 Quarterly perspectivesTavistock Wealth - Investment Outlook
Welcome to the Q2-2021 ‘Quarterly Perspectives’ publication
It has been a little over one year since the world went into lockdown. At the time of writing, we seem to be emerging from that hiatus. The intervening period has been one of considerable disruption but also an opportunity for reflection; to take stock, evaluate and improve how we do what we do across the centralised investment proposition. As a result of these changes and the steadfast determination and professionalism of the investment team we were able to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns during a period of considerable uncertainty and market volatility. Relative to the peer group, all but one of the ACUMEN Portfolios significantly outperformed their respective IA sector, with some of the funds making the top 10. This strong performance also bolstered our inception-to-date rankings where 5 of the funds now appear in the first quartile.
Crises rarely occur in isolation. Once the history books are written they typically signify, catalyse, or help forge, broader structural change. From that perspective, we think the coronavirus pandemic marks a potential turning point in the secular cycle, a break with the old neoliberal economic order and the start of a new chapter characterised by the greatest economic boom in recent times.
At the heart of the neoliberal agenda sit three core themes. The first is the retreat of social democracy. The stagflation of the 1970s was blamed on mismanagement of the economy, itself the result of an abundance of democracy and ill-equipped, inexperienced politicians overly focused on the short-term political cycle. The answer that emerged was the transference of power to an elite group of highly educated and politically insulated technocrats, the central bankers. These would be the true shepherds of the future economy. The second core theme is the power of the free-market, which would result in the most efficient allocation of resources and in turn drive faster economic growth. This free-market approach to capitalism is consistent with deregulation, a reduction in government spending and the dominant role played by capital markets throughout the 1980s and ensuing decades. The third and final theme, which follows-on from the prior two, is the overwhelming focus, amongst central bankers, on taming and controlling inflation. This focus was born out of the painful and costly experience of the 1970s. Over the last few decades, and in-spite-of the complete absence of above-target inflation, the Fed has pre-emptively hiked interest rates, imposing a consistent downward bias, which has proven a boon to financial markets over the years.
Each of these three themes are increasingly under threat. We can see the reason for this by focusing on the core failure of neoliberal policy… widening inequality to the detriment of the working class.
Whilst gains in productivity were broadly shared before 1980, the average US worker has since failed to participate, contributing to a remarkable separation between a productivity index of hourly output and the median family income adjusted for inflation. The chart shows profits climbed faster than wages with higher earners capturing a greater portion that lower-paid employees, contributing to a notable rise in income inequality over the years.
Signs of a shift in American politics also emerged under Bernie Sanders and his focus on working-class values. Bernie’s radical persona failed to appeal to the democratic vote but the ideas that emerged from his movement remain at the forefront of Democratic party policy today under Biden. After winning the Georgia state run-offs, the Democrats are in the enviable position of controlling federal policy. They will not make the same mistake they made in 2010 and to win the mid-terms, and retain control of Congress, they know they need to go all-in, guns blazing… with a $1.9 trillion spending package.
Economic power is being wrestled back, from the technocrats to the politicians, who seek to usher in a new age of fiscal dominance characterised by increased government spending. This has coincided with the rise of a new intellectual discipline called MMT, or modern monetary theory, which in simple terms states governments should use fiscal policy to achieve full employment and do so by creating new money to fund purchases.
This should be the point for the technocrats to push back. Leading the charge was Larry Summers, who served as US Treasury Secretary for Bill Clinton. He argued Biden’s economic stimulus package risked unleashing the worst inflation in a generation. His article drew forth a rigorous response from critics, who suggested worrying about overheating was ‘foolish in the extreme’, but very little support from his fellow technocrats. This is somewhat surprising but bear in mind that this is all happening at a time when monetary policy seems to have reached the limits of its effectiveness. The Fed’s response to the crisis took interest rates to their lower bound and helped alleviate a major liquidity meltdown. But buying assets, in such huge quantities, not only undermines theme number 2, the free functioning of markets, it also contributes to the inequality problem.
It seems the intellectual conversion of the technocrats may have already taken place and if so, that turning point was probably August last year, when Jerome Powell announced a shift towards average inflation targeting. This means the Fed will now allow inflation to overshoot its official 2% target to compensate for prior years where inflation failed to reach that level. This marks a clear break from theme number 3, and a suitable bookmark to the Paul Volcker years.
To summarise, for all its success, neoliberal economic policy has contributed to widening inequality and a changing political landscape. Economic power is being wrestled back, from the technocrats to the politicians who seek to usher in a new age of fiscal dominance characterised by increased government spending. These developments, which have been turbocharged by the pandemic, undermine the prior neoliberal economic order and seek to replace it with something new. What makes this juncture so interesting is that even as fiscal policy goes into overdrive, monetary policy is likely to remain highly accommodative throughout. To our mind, this points to a period of outsized economic growth and higher inflation.
Chart of the Quarter
US inflation rose to its highest level in almost three years in March, to 2.6%. This is consistent with rising commodity prices and rising input cost inflation, as shown by the US Empire State Manufacturing Survey Prices Paid index in blue. The sharp rise in inflation will not stop here as we are now approaching a three-month run where decade-low monthly readings drop out of the rolling calculation. The real question remains to what extent these figures prove transitory, as the Fed expects, or something longer lasting. We won’t know that until later this year when rising inflation expectations and the release of pent-up demand offset declining base rate effects.
These key themes are the common thread running through this Quarterly Perspectives document, which forms the basis of our strategic investment outlook. Over the last few months we have taken steps to implement these views, on a tactical basis, across the ACUMEN Portfolios. Specifically, we have leaned further into the re-opening narrative by adding additional positions to our cyclical exposure. In equities we remain underweight the US where we prefer exposure to value stocks, particularly via the S&P 500 industrials, financials and materials sectors. Outside the US, we like the UK and recently added new positions in European energy majors and Japanese small cap stocks. Within emerging markets we continue to like Brazilian and Russian equities. To complement our cyclical positioning, we have retained some exposure to those highly profitable companies that we believe also benefit from long-term structural tailwinds. These include Taiwanese semiconductor companies, Chinese Technology firms, and ESG via companies in the clean energy space. In fixed income we favour inflation-linked bonds and high yield debt over investment grade credit with a preference for short-dated securities. We remain underweight long-dated nominal government bonds. Finally, we like commodities which can deliver strong gains over the coming cycle and provide an inflationary hedge and additional diversification benefits.
Asset Allocation Outlook
US longer dated Treasuries’ yields have risen far more than those of shorter maturities year-to-date.
We maintain this preference, for shorter duration securities, within our investment grade corporate bond exposure. At the beginning of the year US investment grade yields did not suitably compensate investors in real terms, hence we reduced duration within this exposure. Having increased our outlook on high yield to neutral last quarter we continue to favour our strategic positioning in higher quality sub-investment grade debt. High yield debt historically has lower sensitivity to underlying interest rates and is thus one of the best performing fixed income sectors year-to-date.
Our outlook, for a steepening US yield curve, should boost the profitability of financials which have already delivered outsized returns via a notable pick-up in earnings. The resumption of share buybacks, contingent on passing Fed stress tests, will be an additional tailwind for the sector. Optimism around additional fiscal momentum, via the passing of an infrastructure bill, will be another key driver of the reflationary theme with the materials and industrials S&P sectors set to become key beneficiaries. Outside of the US, we recently opened a position in Japanese small caps, which are highly exposed to cyclical sectors of the economy and have scope for price multiple expansion as corporate profits rebound. Within emerging markets, we remain overweight Taiwanese equities amid semiconductor supply shortages given the region’s stronghold in the market.
As equity markets continue to look past the risks surrounding the coronavirus and focus on the reopening of economies, inflation reappears at the centre of investors’ minds. With rising inflation expectations, the direction and dispersion of equity returns will be inextricably linked to not only the level of bond yields but also the rate at which they move.
US cyclicals outperformance vs defensives has been precipitated on rising US 10-year yields.
Taiwanese equities shot out of the 2021 racing blocks.
We wrote in our Q1 Quarterly Perspectives on a stronger environment for real assets, amid rising inflation, a weakening dollar, and a phased global re-opening. So far this has rung true; commodities have been the best performing asset class this year, with the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index outperforming the MSCI World by 9.6% year-to-date. Talk of a super-cycle may be premature, but it is evident the economic environment upon which commodities tend to outperform is firmly in place.
We posit cyclical commodities will continue to benefit most acutely, with copper set to outperform (Goldman Sachs price target of $11,000 a ton by year end). We believe that momentary pauses in commodity prices, over the effectiveness of vaccines and localised resurgences of Covid-19, reflect natural periods of consolidation before a second substantial move higher. This is reflected in bullish forecasts from the International Energy Agency who estimate oil demand will increase by 5.7 million barrels per day by the end of 2021, an upward revision of 230,000 barrels. When combined with US inflation rising towards a three-year high in March, oil prices look to have further upside, with WTI having already risen over 20% YTD.
We have implemented these themes through a position in EU oil majors, which are attractively priced relative to their US peers, and Russian equities which are skewed towards energy and financial stocks. We have also initiated a position tracking the Bloomberg roll select commodity index which captures broad-based commodity movements and provides additional exposure to commodity sub-sectors like agriculture. We have continued faith in copper, as the cyclical recovery matched with large scale stimulus plans underpin these higher targets. Our allocation to gold has struggled due to rising bond yields, the pause in dollar weakness and risk-on appetite. However recent central bank buying and consumer demand in Asia has provided price support, and we believe inflation expectations will outpace the rise in nominal treasury yields going forward.
The relative valuations of EU oil majors are cheap in comparison to US counterparts. US majors have moved upwards broadly in-line with the oil price, but European majors have not moved to nearly the same degree. Strong balance sheets, corporate buyback policies and a restarting of production assets should see this correlation rise and the EU majors catch up, compounded by a higher oil price.
With the global pandemic impairing basic economic functionality so severely in recent times, traders have looked to vaccination rates for an indication on which economies will return to normality first. The UK has been leading the pack in these metrics allowing the UK pound to catch a bid. With the BOE ruling out talk of negative rates, the pound looks set to continue its appreciation against the US dollar, towards purchasing power parity and historical averages, in the 1.40-1.45 range. Meanwhile, the euro has lagged its G10 counterparts in 2021, being behind the curve on vaccinations and suffering from extended lockdowns. If the reopening narrative plays out, this characteristically cyclical currency could well outperform.
Over the long term, the twin deficits should put downward pressure on the US dollar, but for now these structural issues will likely remain secondary to the pace of vaccinations and Biden’s stimulus package.
Clean energy, electric vehicles and battery technology sectors delivered outsized returns last year but have come under pressure in 2021.
As detailed in the key themes and subsequent asset class specific sub-sections, we are positioned for a reopening economy. Over the last few months we have taken profit on ‘growth’ and re-allocated towards ‘value’ names, which are attractively priced and stand to benefit the most from the cyclical economic recovery. These trades have performed handsomely within the context of The Great Rotation that has been in place since October.
Rising nominal bond yields have been a key factor driving this equity market rotation. However, with the 10-year Treasury yield having risen from around 1.1% to 1.7% in just a few weeks, we expect a period of consolidation where yields can go sideways for a bit before resuming their upward march. This may result in a partial rebound for growth as demonstrated in the chart below which shows the S&P growth/value ratio moving higher towards a key technical range in yellow. It is not entirely certain why this range has proven so significant, but it is something we continue to watch closely and comes at an important juncture for markets at the start of a new earnings season.
One factor that could help turbo-charge the next leg of the rotation is if we see momentum strategies rebalance into value stocks. The value rally has run long enough that there is an increasing share of value stocks that also screen as momentum stocks. As such, we could see a rare technical event, across momentum strategies, which would trigger a major rebalancing out of tech and healthcare and into financials, energy, materials and industrials… positions we hold across the ACUMEN portfolios.
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In its latest economic outlook, the OECD increased its expectations for global GDP. For 2020, the improvement is minimal, reflecting an upward revision, in real GDP, from -4.5% to -4.2%. But beyond that, growing economic momentum should boost global growth to pre-pandemic levels, estimated at 4.2% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022.
Markets are ebullient, and they have every reason to be.
On Monday afternoon, global stock markets soared on the news BioNTech and Pfizer had created a coronavirus vaccine which proved 90% effective based on initial trial results. The story behind the breakthrough, which you can read here, is fascinating, not least because the husband and wife team behind the virus don’t yet know why it works.
The narrative, heading into the US election, was a ‘Blue Wave’ victory for the Democrats. Polls and betting odds favoured a Biden win and a Senate majority and investors positioned accordingly. Anticipation for a huge fiscal stimulus package, estimated at $3 trillion+, lent itself to the global reflation trade which would stimulate the economy and revive inflation, benefiting cyclical assets whilst hitting government bonds.
The ACUMEN Portfolios continued their strong run throughout October, largely outperforming the market composite benchmark and IA sectors (used for peer group comparison purposes) which lost ground across the board.
With the US election just 8 days away, financial markets are following the polls and pricing in a Biden win. The prospect for a Democratic clean sweep has contributed to the rising ‘Blue Wave’ narrative benefiting those companies that stand to benefit from Democratic party policy. Meanwhile a long/short basket of companies more closely aligned with Republican policy and values has steadily underperform.
Welcome to the Q4-2020 ‘Quarterly Perspectives’ publication.
On Tuesday Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, made a speech at the National Association for Business Economics, during which he implied the government should err on the side of caution and provide too much stimulus rather than too little.
Saturday Night Live has a reputation for expertly parodying presidential election debates. My all-time favourite is Al Gore (Darrell Hammond) versus George Bush (Will Ferrell) and this year didn’t disappoint with expert performances from Donald Trump (Alec Baldwin) and Joe Biden (Jim Carrey).
The following is an abbreviated version of my recent article ‘A Deep Dive Into… UK Equities’ for Investment Week magazine. Follow the link and read my views on page 17.
Last week the FTSE Russell decided to include Chinese government bonds in its flagship World Government Bond Index (WGBI). The decision follows similar moves, from JP Morgan and Bloomberg, and a failed attempt to do so just one year prior which resulted in a number of reforms, to increase accessibility and currency trading options, that ultimately paved the way for benchmark admission.
In last week’s blog we discussed the ‘Nasdaq whale’, Softbank, and the role it played, alongside an army of retail investors, driving tech prices ever higher prior to the recent correction. These short-term ‘technical’ flows are driven by the options market as traders look to hedge their underlying exposure, amplifying moves both lower and higher.
The ACUMEN Portfolios continue to perform well. As you can see from the table below, performance for the rolling quarter (to the end of August) remains strong relative to the market composite benchmark and the current assigned IA sector, which I understand many advisers use for comparison purposes. ACUMEN Portfolios 3-8 were all in the first quartile and ranked in the top 15 within their category.
In a speech for the history books, last week Fed chairman Jerome Powell announced a significant change to the way it conducts monetary policy by formally announcing ‘average inflation targeting’. This means the Fed will now allow inflation to overshoot its official 2% target to compensate for prior years where inflation failed to reach that level.
Despite the fact the coronavirus has plunged many countries into recession, global equity markets are now back at all-time highs, as measured by the Bloomberg World Exchange Market Capitalisation index.
In The Return Of Inflation (5th June 2020) we made the case for a transition from the existing deflationary narrative to one in which markets start to price-in inflation.
Having identified, and benefited from, the 7% fall in the value of the US dollar index since late April, we have now turned tactically cautious.
In last week’s blog, This Time It’s Different (24 July 2020), I suggested the US dollar was on the cusp of crashing through its decade-long uptrend.
There are growing signs that the US dollar may finally roll over.
Welcome to the Q3-2020 ‘Quarterly Perspectives’ publication.
The 10 year US Treasury yield has remained remarkably steady over the last few months, particularly as inflation expectations have gradually risen.
Those stocks that outperformed during the corona crisis are the same ‘winners’ that outperformed before the crisis.
The recovery in US equity prices, from the corona crisis, has been one of the most rapid in history.
China’s economy has transitioned, from an industrial export-led model, towards services.
Commodities are nothing if not cyclical. They rise and fall in value with remarkable consistency over time.
Quantitative easing, or QE, is where a central bank creates money to buy bonds. The goal is to keep interest rates low and to stimulate the economy during periods of economic stress.
In January 2019 Jerome Powell pivoted from a policy of interest rate increases and balance sheet cuts to interest rate cuts and, later that year, balance sheet expansion.
Over the last decade, the Fed has increasingly resorted to unconventional monetary policy, such as quantitative easing, or QE, to stimulate the economy.
In response to the corona crisis, global central banks have unleashed a tidal wave of liquidity.
One question I get from advisers and clients, more than any other, is why global equity markets have bounced back so far.
In the early stages of the Corona Crisis of 2020, the global economy faced a liquidity crisis.
In an unprecedented day in the history of oil trading the price of the front month contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell below zero to -$37.63.
In a trading update last week, the listed adviser warned that the outbreak has caused commercials conditions to become “extremely challenging”
Bosses at Tavistock Investments have taken a voluntary, significant pay cut…
As the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar is the go-to currency. It is used to price assets, complete transactions and as a store of value.
Brian Raven tells Proactive Investor its two protected UCITS trusts have proved themselves during the current market volatility caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
The coronavirus has brought economic activity to a virtual stand-still and transformed a strong global economy, with lots of debt, to a weak economy… with lots of debt.
Last week, we considered the debt story behind the coronavirus. The fear of a large debt overhang, as the economy slows, led to concern that households and companies could start to default on their...
In the past three weeks, global equity markets have fallen almost as much as in the Financial Crisis of 2007-08.
Investment sector veteran Hugh Simon has taken a near 5% stake in wealth consolidator Tavistock in a strategic partnership.
In the past week, global equity markets have fallen again and yields on developed market government bonds have collapsed even further.
Halcyon days, global equity markets have fallen again and yields on developed market government bonds have collapsed even further.